The challenge for 2023 was to turn the spiralling crisis of the destruction of nature towards a circular regeneration loop. But due to geopolitical turmoil (wars) with mass migrations, the cost of living and remaining polycrisis (e.g. cyber) the challenge is still a distant dream. So, looking ahead how have cohorts from 2023+ evolved?
Last year I wrote about REGENERATION, DIGITAL AUTOMATION, SOCIAL EQUITY, and ACTIVISM cohorts leading the directions for strategy planning.
Since then, what are the shifts in narratives that can reveal new meanings for 2024+?
- REGENERATION remains a mainstream story
- DIGITAL AUTOMATION moves to become an even more popular
- SOCIAL EQUITY is still an emerging story
- ACTIVISM becomes more disruptive
FORESIGHT ANALYSIS
Regeneration, Remaining story, mainstream
Achieving transformative shifts such as the Energy Transition demands not only innovative ideas but also decisive action. Beyond mere manifestations and corporate pledges, individuals are seeking a deeper commitment from corporations, organizations, and institutions. This necessitates a fundamental shift in priorities, moving away from the traditional focus on growth economics towards a commitment to social well-being and the preservation of life, as advocated by concepts such as Doughnut Economics and Degrowth. While there is a growing global readiness for embracing more sustainable lifestyle choices, a crucial gap persists in fostering interconnection and systemic thinking.
We are currently exceeding 6 out of 9 planetary boundaries, which is driven by economic activity. There are various strategies for achieving a prosperous society within planetary boundaries. The degrowth concept, imagines an economy functioning without continuous growth. However, enacting these changes within current structures is challenging. To build a sustainable, inclusive economy, fundamental shifts in both mindset and policy are essential. (Source: TRIODOS Long Term Outlook 2024)
MACRO: Transformations like Energy Transition
MESO: Change in priorities from growth economics towards betterment
MICRO: More sustainable lifestyle choices
Digital Automation, Dominant story, popular
Market Automation is rapidly advancing across diverse sectors from mobility and logistics to agriculture. The integration of AI into the workforce, particularly in the back office, is facilitated by super systems, underscoring the growing significance of AI ethics and bias prevention. A seamless fusion of Augmented Reality (AR), Artificial Intelligence (AI), and commerce is embedding into our daily lives and transforming every moment and interaction into an opportunity for commerce.
People are acquiring proficiency in utilising AI and language models, engaging with smart assistant interfaces that serve multifaceted roles like personal shopper, beautician, doctor, therapist, career advisor, and travel planner.
MACRO: Automation across sectors
MESO: Job market restructuring, AI ethics and bias prevention
MICRO: Smart assistants help to organise life
Social Equity, Emerging story, emerging
Geopolitics drive the shift from globalisation to nationalist and populist political movements creating new alliances. Trust in institutions is all-time low. Only 20% of companies will fund a DEI function with an endorsed strategy and personnel — a 7-point drop from 2023 levels. (Source: 2023 Forrester Research).
Social divisions are on the rise, illustrated by phenomena like shrinkflation or greedflation—wherein products undergo a reduction in quantity or size while maintaining their price. Simultaneously, the decentralisation trend is ushering in a shift from centralised narratives to more diverse and localised perspectives, fostering inclusivity and heightened ethical awareness.
MACRO: Nationalist and populist political movements
MESO: Social division is increasing
MICRO: Diverse and localised issues
Activism, Disruptive story, rebelling
The line between mainstream and alternative lifestyles blurs as identity and family norms evolve globally, particularly in Europe, North America, and Japan, where single-person households are on the rise. Disinformation spawns diverse realities, fueling interest in smaller digital communities due to social media fragmentation and algorithmic anxiety. Post-pandemic shifts, like prioritizing work-life balance, are reshaping traditional milestones. For instance, the percentage of those opting for marriage has declined from 30% to 21%, reflecting broader societal reconsiderations. (Source: Accenture Life Trends 2024)
MACRO: Average family structure is changing
MESO: Digitalisation accelerates niche communities
MICRO: Life values and milestones are shifting
By changing the narrative direction we can rewrite the power back to what is most important and create new meanings.
-> Regeneration NARRATIVE 2024+
From blah blah blah to action & accountability
-> Digital Automation NARRATIVE 2024+
From AI ‘intern’ to AI pro skills
-> Social Equity NARRATIVE 2024+
From top down to people power and justice
-> Activism NARRATIVE 2024+
From alternative few to niche of many
TENSIONS & Opportunities
To bring about significant changes in a system, it’s crucial to understand the existing power structures and the conflicts between them. In the context of interconnectedness, we need to find a balance between two opposing extremes for the system to work well.
Four Tensions that are Future Forces of Change:
- Automation vs. Humanity & planet preservation
- Individual vs. Collective experiences
- IRL (In-real-life) vs. Fantasy worlds
- Global alliances vs. Local movements
Four Opportunity areas:
- Self-organising systems ~ More-than-Human cooperation
- Autonomous Technologies ~ Individual Control
- Communal Belonging ~ Individual Privacy
- Interest based communities ~ Subculture of one
By seeking a balance between tensions, we uncover opportunity areas to solve challenges and progress toward the future. This process acts as a roadmap for innovation. The key lies in understanding the specific case, figuring out the right opportunity to address, and determining the direction to take for a solution.
(The framework above is just a simplification to explain the process and how to work with complexity and is not based a case study).
Next, I will further explore important themes that originate from these directions.
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